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2024 French legislative election

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2024 French legislative election

← 2022 30 June and 7 July 2024 2029 →

All 577 seats of the National Assembly
289 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Gabriel Attal, February 2023.jpg
Leader Gabriel Attal Collective leadership
Party Ensemble NFP
Alliance
Parties
Leader's seat Not standing
Last election 245 New alliance
Current seats 249 155

 
Leader Jordan Bardella Annie Genevard
(de facto)[c]
Party RN LR (CNI-backed candidates)[b]
Alliance Includes pro-Ciotti LR members
Leader's seat Not standing Doubs's 5th
Last election 89 64
Current seats 84[a] 59[a]


Incumbent Prime Minister

Gabriel Attal
Ensemble



An early legislative election is expected to be held in France in two rounds on 30 June and 7 July 2024, to elect the 577 members of the 17th National Assembly of the Fifth French Republic. This follows President Emmanuel Macron's decision to call a snap legislative election after the results of the 2024 European Parliament election were announced in which his L'Europe Ensemble suffered a heavy defeat to the far-right National Rally,[2] which prompted him to dissolve the National Assembly.[3]

Background[edit]

Following the 2022 legislative election, Ensemble lost its absolute majority in the National Assembly. Among the member parties of the coalition was President Emmanuel Macron's party, Renaissance (formerly La République En Marche!) Meanwhile, the two main opposition blocs, the left-wing New Ecological and Social People's Union (NUPES) and populist right-wing (RN), saw a major surge in seats won in 2022. Despite that, no group won the absolute majority, resulting in a hung parliament for the first time since the 1988 election.[4]

On 9 June 2024, shortly after 21:00 CET, Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called for snap elections in a national address following exit polls that indicated that the Renaissance party would be significantly eclipsed by the RN in votes for France's European Parliament elections. In his address, he called the rise of nationalism by agitators a threat to France, Europe, and France's place in the world. He also decried the far right as the "impoverishment of the French people and the downfall of our country". The first round of elections are scheduled for 30 June, and a second round for 7 July.[5]

RN leader Jordan Bardella called the disparity a "stinging disavowal" of Macron, calling for him to dissolve the National Assembly in the wake of the defeat he called "Day 1 of the post-Macron era".[6] Marine Le Pen, who leads the RN in the National Assembly, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of La France Insoumise, celebrated the poll results and welcomed the call for snap elections.[5]

The decision to hold an election came as a surprise, and was considered risky. Some suggested that Macron wished to force a decision between the RN and their opposition, others that Macron intended to win a majority. The decision was criticized by members of several political parties, with the mayor of Paris, Anne Hidalgo, expressing concerns about its effects on the 2024 Summer Olympics.[7][8]

Campaign[edit]

The timeline for candidates to register for the first round of elections is from 12 June until 16 June, while the candidate registration deadline for the second round is 2 July.[9]

Campaigning officially began on 17 June.[10]

Leftist politician François Ruffin called on all left-wing parties, including the Greens, to form a "popular front" in order to avoid the "worst" outcome.[11] Calls for unity were also shared by Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure, Greens leader Marine Tondelier and French Communist Party leader Fabien Roussel.[12] A letter of 350 intellectuals (including Esther Duflo and Annie Ernaux) calling for a union of left-wing forces was published in Le Monde on 10 June.[13] The New Popular Front was established on the same day.[14] The coalition unveiled its campaign platform on 14 June, which included overturning Macron's immigration policy and pension reforms, continuing military aid to Ukraine and sending peacekeepers to secure Ukraine's nuclear power plants.[15] The NFP announced its budgetary proposals on 21 June, including a solidarity tax on wealth "with a climate component" and a 14% increase in the minimum wage.[16]

Marion Maréchal, a far-right candidate for Reconquête in the European election, met with her aunt Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, leaders of the RN, on 10 June, to discuss a potential far-right alliance during the legislative election.[17] After the meeting, Maréchal indicated that Bardella was opposed to an alliance with Reconquête as his party did not want to be affiliated with Reconquête party leader Éric Zemmour;[18] regardless, she announced her endorsement of the RN. On 12 June, Zemmour announced that he was expelling Maréchal from the party.[19]

Marine Le Pen promised that the RN would form a "national unity government" should it win the election.[15] At the same time, Bardella said that he was "the only one capable of blocking Jean-Luc Mélenchon and blocking the far left" and urged "all the patriotic forces of the republic" to unite and prevent the left from winning the election. He also pledged to pass an immigration law allowing the deportation of "delinquents and Islamists" and cut energy costs as prime minister.[20] On 18 June, Bardella urged voters to give his party an "absolute majority" for it to be able to govern effectively, while pledging to cut energy taxes to 5.5% from 20%.[21] In an interview with Le Monde, Le Pen confirmed that Bardella would not seek the post of prime minister in the absence of an absolute majority.[22]

The president of The Republicans, Éric Ciotti, spoke in favor of an alliance with the RN during an 11 June interview with the French channel TF1. Olivier Marleix, the head of the party in the National Assembly, called for Ciotti's resignation in response.[3] On 12 June, The Republicans' political committee voted unanimously to remove Ciotti as its president and expel him from the party. However, the latter rejected the decision, calling it "a flagrant violation of our statutes" that was illegal and void.[23] A Paris court reviewed the decision on 14 June, in which Ciotti was reinstated as party leader in the interim,[24] while Republicans in Hauts-de-Seine announced a local alliance with Renaissance.[20] On 17 June, Ciotti secured an agreement with RN to present 62 candidates, none of which are outgoing LR deputies except for himself and his close ally Christelle d'Intorni, while the national investiture committee of LR unveiled candidates in a majority of other constituencies, including all other incumbent deputies seeking re-election, as well as fielding candidates against both Ciotti and d'Intorni.[25][1][26]

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal vowed to do everything to avoid "the worst" outcome, with aides quoting him as saying that the far right was "at the gates of power" in France.[27] Finance minister Bruno Le Maire also warned that a victory by either the far-right or the left could cause a financial crisis.[20] On 12 June, Macron said that he had called the election to prevent a far-right victory in the 2027 presidential election. He criticised The Republicans for its potential alliance with the RN, as well as the New Popular Front, and urged all parties "able to say no to extremes" to unite.[28] Since then, Attal has pledged to lower electricity bills and inheritance taxes, link pensions to inflation and provide aid to first-time property buyers.[29]

Macron and his allies decided to focus their attacks on the program of the New Popular Front prior to the first round, largely avoiding direct confrontation against the RN until the second round.[30] Macron himself publicly denounced its "totally immigrationist" stance and decried proposals which would make it easier for transgender people to change their civil status,[31] and his former prime minister Élisabeth Borne decried the alliance as being one of "separatist wokists who support Islamism and communitarianism" with a nonsensical program and disastrous economic policies.[32] On 21 June, Macron argued that, "contrary to what some say," the left and RN are not "rampart[s] of [each] other ... there are extremes we must not allow to pass."[33] According to an Odoxa poll, 34% believed a RN-led government would be more dangerous for France compared to 33% in the case of a NFP-led government,[34] and an OpinionWay poll indicated centrist voters refusing to vote for NFP candidates in the second round could boost the RN, with NFP candidates trailing 34%–41% in second-round duels against RN candidates, whereas pro-Macron candidates led RN ones by a 44%–36% margin.[35]

Electoral system[edit]

The 577 members of the National Assembly, known as deputies, are elected for five years by a two-round system in single-member constituencies. A candidate who receives an absolute majority of valid votes and a vote total greater than 25% of the registered electorate is elected in the first round. If no candidate reaches this threshold, a runoff election is held between the top two candidates plus any other candidate who received a vote total greater than 12.5% of registered voters. The candidate who receives the most votes in the second round is elected.[36]

A consequence of the 12.5% threshold is the potential for three-way runoffs, also referred to as triangulaires, in a greater number of constituencies in the second round in the event of higher turnout and diminished number of candidates, as is anticipated to be the case in 2024 relative to previous legislative elections. Such a dynamic reinforces the likelihood that higher turnout becomes an advantage for the National Rally, which received a clear plurality of the vote in pre-first round polls and as a result would be expected to win a greater share of seats due to the increased number of three-way races in the second round.[37]

Deputies not running for re-election[edit]

Political parties and coalitions[edit]

Below are the major parties and alliances (including any primary components with candidates in at least 3 constituencies) contesting the elections in a majority (289 or more as tallied by Le Monde) of constituencies, listed by their combined results in the previous elections.[26]

Due to the suddenness of the dissolution, significantly fewer candidates will compete in the legislative elections in 2024 compared to previous years, with only 4,010 candidates in 577 constituencies (the lowest figure since the 1988 election). The decline is also explained by both national and local alliances as well as the absence of candidates in some constituencies in order to support other ideologically-aligned candidates. Smaller parties were the most significantly affected (such as the Animalist Party, which presented 421 candidates and received 1.1% of the vote in 2022 but announced it would not present candidates in 2024) due to their inability to negotiate alliances with larger parties and identify candidates in the majority of constituencies with such short notice.[38][26]

Party or alliance Leader Main ideology Position Seats before election Status
Together for the Republic Renaissance and allies Stéphane Séjourné Liberalism Centre
158 / 577
Government[d]
Democratic Movement[e] François Bayrou Liberalism Centre to
centre-right
47 / 577
Horizons[f] Édouard Philippe Liberal conservatism Centre-right
30 / 577
Union of Democrats and Independents[g] Hervé Marseille Liberalism Centre to
centre-right
7 / 577
Radical Party[h] Laurent Hénart Liberalism Centre
5 / 577
New Popular Front La France Insoumise and allies[i] Manuel Bompard Democratic socialism Left-wing
75 / 577
Opposition
Socialist Party and allies[j] Olivier Faure Social democracy Centre-left
32 / 577
The Ecologists and allies[i] Marine Tondelier Green politics Centre-left to
left-wing
23 / 577
French Communist Party and allies Fabien Roussel Communism Left-wing to
far-left
22 / 577
Place Publique and others[k] Raphaël Glucksmann and Aurore Lalucq Social democracy Centre-left to
left-wing
Did not contest
National Rally and allies[l][a] Jordan Bardella Right-wing populism Far-right
84 / 577
The Republicans[a] Annie Genevard (de facto)
Éric Ciotti (de jure)[c]
Liberal conservatism Centre-right to
right-wing
59 / 577
Reconquête[m] Éric Zemmour National conservatism Far-right
0 / 577
Lutte Ouvrière[n] Collective leadership Trotskyism Far-left
0 / 577
Others/Independents
35 / 577

Opinion polls[edit]

Graphical summary[edit]

Results[edit]

Results listed below correspond to the groupings of candidates created by the Ministry of the Interior, which may differ slightly from the figures reported in other sources due to reclassification of candidates into different political parties and alliances. Differences noted in the footnotes of the national results table below reflect political parties and alliances attributed to candidates by Le Monde.[47][26]

National results[edit]

Summary of the 30 June–7 July 2024 French National Assembly election results
Party or allianceFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Ensemble[o]
New Popular Front[p]
National Rally and alliesNational Rally
Union of the far-right[q]
Total
The Republicans[b]
Reconquête
Miscellaneous left[r]
Ecologists[s]
Miscellaneous right[t]
Regionalists[u]
Miscellaneous centre[v]
Miscellaneous far-left[w]
Sovereignist right[x]
Miscellaneous[y]
Radical Party of the Left[z]
Miscellaneous far-right[aa]
Total
Registered voters/turnout49,339,71449,339,714
Source: Ministry of the Interior[47]
Popular vote
ENS[o]
0.00%
NFP[p]
0.00%
RN/UXD[q]
0.00%
LR[b]
0.00%
REC
0.00%
DVG
0.00%
ECO
0.00%
DVD
0.00%
REG
0.00%
DVC
0.00%
EXG
0.00%
DSV
0.00%
DIV
0.00%
RDG
0.00%
EXD
0.00%
Seats
ENS[o]
0.00%
NFP[p]
0.00%
RN/UXD[q]
0.00%
LR[b]
0.00%
REC
0.00%
DVG
0.00%
ECO
0.00%
DVD
0.00%
REG
0.00%
DVC
0.00%
EXG
0.00%
DSV
0.00%
DIV
0.00%
RDG
0.00%
EXD
0.00%

Results by constituency[edit]

Results listed below are according to the Ministry of the Interior, with some more specific parties listed in accordance with research by Le Monde where appropriate.[47][26]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b c d Pre-election seat totals account for Éric Ciotti and Christelle d'Intorni running as candidates in their constituencies in alliance with the RN without the endorsement of the national investiture committee of The Republicans (French: commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains)[1]
  2. ^ a b c d Vote and seat totals corresponding to LR candidates invested by the national investiture committee of The Republicans (French: commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains), including some directly in opposition to Ciotti himself and other candidates presented by his alliance with the RN in certain constituencies[1]
  3. ^ a b Éric Ciotti is de jure The Republicans (LR) party leader but presenting a rival set of candidates in alliance with the National Rally (RN) against candidates selected by the national investiture committee of The Republicans (French: commission nationale d'investiture des Républicains). Annie Genevard and François-Xavier Bellamy were installed as interim party presidents before Ciotti's reinstatement as president and party member, and Genevard was considered the de facto leader of the anti-Ciotti wing of the party by default.[43][44][45][1]
  4. ^ Excluding UDI, who announced their participation in the alliance for the legislative elections on 13 June 2024[39]
  5. ^ Includes 78 candidates, also presenting 1 candidate against official Together for the Republic candidates[26]
  6. ^ Includes 77 candidates[26]
  7. ^ Includes 11 candidates, also presenting 27 candidates against official Together for the Republic candidates[26]
  8. ^ Includes 3 candidates, also presenting 1 candidate against official Together for the Republic candidates[26]
  9. ^ a b Also presenting 1 candidate against official New Popular Front candidates[26]
  10. ^ Also presenting 6 candidates against official New Popular Front candidates[26]
  11. ^ Two candidates for Tāvini Huiraʻatira (1 candidate invested outside the framework of the New Popular Front) as well as one candidate each for Republican and Socialist Left (1 candidate invested outside the framework of the New Popular Front), Ecological Revolution for the Living, Ecology Generation, Picardie Debout, the New Anticapitalist Party (29 candidates invested outside of the framework of the New Popular Front), the Independent Workers' Party, Ecosocialist Left, and abertzale with the New Popular Front, as well as several dissident candidates not officially supported by their party.[26][40]
  12. ^ Includes candidates jointly backed by the Ciotti-led The Republicans faction. The right-wing populist party Debout la France will present its own candidates in only 76 constituencies as classified by Le Monde (although the party officially claims to have 107 candidates), including against RN candidates, and will simultaneously support RN-backed candidates in other constituencies[26][41][42]
  13. ^ Candidates invested in 329 (57.0%) constituencies according to the classification of Le Monde, although the party officially claims to have invested candidates in 330 (57.2%) constituencies[26][46]
  14. ^ Candidates invested in 550 (95.3%) constituencies[26]
  15. ^ a b c Vote and seat calculations include the following codes assigned by the Ministry of the Interior: ENS, REN, MDM, HOR, and UDI
  16. ^ a b c Vote and seat calculations include the following codes assigned by the Ministry of the Interior: UG, FI, SOC, VEC, and COM
  17. ^ a b c The designation "union of the far-right" (French: union de l'extrême droite, UXD) is used by the Ministry of the Interior to refer to candidates jointly invested by the Ciotti-led faction of The Republicans and supported by the National Rally[48][26]
  18. ^ Includes 9 NFP candidates, 1 Ensemble candidate, 11 dissident NFP candidates, and 1 non-NFP candidate from a NFP member party out of 140 total candidates[26]
  19. ^ Includes 19 of 23 Ecology at the Centre candidates, 2 non-Ensemble Union of Democrats and Independents candidates out of 38 total candidates, 1 non-NFP candidate from a NFP member party, and 1 NFP candidate out of 144 total candidates[26]
  20. ^ Includes 37 LR candidates, 5 Ensemble candidates, 3 union of the far-right candidates, 2 dissident LR candidates, 1 non-Ensemble MoDem candidate, 1 non-Ensemble UDI candidate, and 1 dissident Ensemble candidate out of 190 total candidates[26]
  21. ^ Includes 14 Unser Land candidates, 3 Femu a Corsica candidates, 3 Occitan Party candidates, 3 of 13 Résistons ! candidates, 3 Tāvini Huiraʻatira candidates (of which 2 are NFP candidates), 2 other NFP candidates, and 2 Party of the Corsican Nation candidates out of 132 total candidates[26]
  22. ^ Includes 8 Ensemble candidates, 13 non-Ensemble Union of Democrats and Independents candidates of 38 total UDI candidates, 5 of 7 Les Centristes candidates, 2 LR candidates, 1 non-Ensemble Radical Party candidate, and 1 Ensemble dissident out of 149 total candidates[26]
  23. ^ Includes 549 of 550 Lutte Ouvrière candidates, 29 of 30 New Anticapitalist Party candidates, and 1 NFP dissident out of 654 total candidates[26]
  24. ^ Includes 74 of 76 Debout la France candidates classified by Le Monde (although the party officially claims to have 107 candidates) out of 114 total sovereignist right candidates, with DLF officially backing RN candidates in a majority of constituencies[26][41][42]
  25. ^ Includes 1 Ensemble candidate, 1 LR candidate, and 1 NFP dissident out of 215 total candidates[26]
  26. ^ The Radical Party of the Left, abbreviated PRG (not to be confused with the Radicals of the Left, French: les Radicaux de gauche, abbreviated LRDG but not related to the code RDG assigned to the PRG), is not officially a member or supporter of the NFP, but supports a left-of-centre coalition and primarily left-of-centre candidates. This code corresponding to the PRG, RDG, has only been assigned to 4 candidates by the Ministry of the Interior, including 1 Ensemble candidate.[26][49]
  27. ^ Includes 3 RN and 2 Reconquête candidates out of 23 total candidates[26]

References[edit]

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  40. ^ "Législatives 2024 : qui est le ou la candidat.e Nouveau Front populaire dans votre circonscription ?". L’Humanité. 18 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  41. ^ a b "Élections législatives 2024 : Nicolas Dupont-Aignan appelle à voter pour l'alliance LR-RN". CNews. 14 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  42. ^ a b "Debout la France est fier de vous présenter ses 107 candidats aux élections législatives 2024". Debout la France. 19 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  43. ^ Legavre-Jérôme, Ulysse (14 June 2024). "Législatives 2024 : la justice invalide l'exclusion d'Eric Ciotti de LR". Les Echos. Retrieved 20 June 2024.
  44. ^ "Éric Ciotti exclu des LR : il "compromet les chances de succès" aux législatives, estime Annie Genevard, directrice du parti par intérim". franceinfo. 13 June 2024. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  45. ^ Royer, Eddy (21 June 2024). "Annie Genevard : « Les Républicains résistent et veulent convaincre qu'ils constituent une alternative »". Valeurs Actuelles. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  46. ^ Azzi, Joy (16 June 2024). "Législatives : Reconquête présentera 330 candidats, annonce Éric Zemmour". Le Journal du Dimanche. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
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  48. ^ "Publication des candidatures et des résultats aux élections". Ministère de l'Intérieur. Retrieved 21 June 2024.
  49. ^ de Corbier, Florent (20 June 2024). "Un autre parti de gauche rejoint Pascal". La Marseillaise. Retrieved 21 June 2024.